We hate to be definitive, and say it's over, but it's over: The Social Network is going to lose.
And here's precisely why The King's Speech has the Best Picture Oscar all wrapped up (probably):
1. The King's Speech Looks Bigger on the Small Screen: There's just something about British people in period costume that says epic, even in a DVD screener, whereas there's just something about wonderful Aaron Sorkin dialogue that says TV. We're not saying this is right; we're just saying.
2. There Are No Potential Game-Changing Contests Left on the Board: Unless there's some Grammy category we're forgetting, the movie awards are done now through the Oscars. Even the most recent show, Saturday night's Writers Guild Awards, did nothing to alter the momentum. The King's Speech wasn't even up for a WGA, so hence The Social Network (and Inception, for that matter) didn't beat it. And don't even mention the BAFTAs, which are next weekend. Do you really think a movie about the royals is going to lose at the British Oscars?
3. It's Not Early January Anymore: A month ago, it seemed The Social Network was the unstoppable force. This feeling, also known as an illusion, was fueled by its wins among critics (who don't vote for the Oscar), and the Hollywood Foreign Press (who barely manage to vote for the Golden Globes). Once the directors, actors, producers and others who vote Oscar started having their say, it was The King's Speech that took over.
4. Old Academy Award Members Don't Die; They Keep Getting Replaced by New Old Ones: From time immemorial, we've heard about how certain movies, like, say, The King's Speech, play better to older voters than movies, like, say, The Social Network, and we've waited for the younger voters to take over. And we've finally realized no such thing is going to happen. Today's young voter is tomorrow's sucker for a British accent.
5. The Suite Life on Deck Factor: We thought Brenda Song was great in The Social Network, but the historic fact remains that films starring Colin Firth win way more Oscars (some) than films featuring Song (none)--or Dylan and Cole Sprouse, for that matter.