After last week’s surprise ouster of “American Idol” favorite La Toya London, many critics expect that Jasmine Trias will be the one to go this week, leaving a final two of Diana DeGarmo, who has been coming on strong in the past few weeks, and Fantasia Barrino, a favorite of the judges as well as many viewers.
Fantasia has been a frontrunner from the earliest days of the competition, while Diana flew under the radar for a long time, putting in technically adequate if somewhat emotionless performances. Jasmine isn’t nearly as strong vocally as the other two remaining contestants. Her secret weapon is a passionate fan contingent from her native state of Hawaii. This week, the three remaining women sang one song of their own choice, one song chosen for them by a judge, and one song chosen for them by the guest judge, legendary record producer Clive Davis. After this week’s performances, which of the final three ladies is the most likely to exit stage left on Wednesday night? Here’s a look:
Jasmine
When Jasmine began sobbing at the end of last week’s episode, it seemed that even she knew that she was finished in the competition, which is what made her top-two finish so shocking. On the one hand, it seems obvious that she would be required to step up her game this week if she wanted to stay. But upon further consideration, why should she? You would be hard-pressed to find someone who could argue that Jasmine had the best performance last week, yet people voted for her anyway. Why should she bother trying to improve, or change anything? She’s beautiful, and looks pretty when she sings, and maybe that’s enough.
Besides her overwhelming support from Hawaii, the other element that may have saved Jasmine last week was her emotional breakdown. Simon Cowell’s characteristically blunt assessment seemed to be the impetus for Jasmine to burst into tears, and that spontaneous show of emotion surely inspired some viewers to vote for her to stay. This week, Jasmine merely nodded and smiled as the judges told her that she doesn’t have what it takes to win, which made it appear as if she didn’t quite understand what they were saying. It’s unlikely that Jasmine will get the pity vote yet again.
Odds that Jasmine will stay: 6 to 1
Working for her: America’s 50th state. Mahalo!
Working against her: She’s an adequate singer, but she can’t hold a candle to the other two.
Diana
Call her the Comeback Kid, with kid being the operative word. The competition’s youngest remaining contestant gets better each week, and is peaking at just the right time. But will her peak be high enough to carry her into the final week? Early on, Diana hit the right notes, but didn’t connect emotionally with her material. Diana, out of all of the contestants, has heeded the judges’ advice, and yet it’s still not quite enough. Diana is rarely out of tune, but her by-the-book performances are still a far cry from showstoppers. Is she having fun up there, or is she just going through the motions?
The other thing Diana needs to do in order to transform into a superstar is find a new stylist. In the last few weeks, Diana’s outfits have been horribly unflattering. She’s a beautiful young girl, and her bad clothing distracts from her vocals.
Odds that Diana will stay: 3 to 1
Working for her: She’s young and cute, appealing to both teens and grandmothers.
Working against her: Voters may be split between avenging La Toya’s loss by voting for Fantasia, and showing up the judges by voting for Jasmine, leaving Diana out in the cold.
Fantasia
Since the early days of this season’s competition, the judges have heaped praise on Fantasia Barrino for her unique vocal qualities and her polished performances. To be sure, Fantasia has the goods. But even Fantasia’s biggest fans have to be getting a little tired of watching her smile and nod with tears in her eyes as the judges tell her how she’s so much better than the other contestants.
There is more to winning this competition than pure talent. Viewers have shown that they want their American Idol to be charismatic and likeable too. Fantasia’s confidence, combined with her vocal prowess, sometimes comes off as arrogance. The judges have often discussed whether the show is a talent contest (which Fantasia would likely win) or a popularity contest (which Fantasia would likely not win). Which is it? This week’s results show will tell.
Odds that Fantasia will stay: 2 to 1
Working for her: Her voice and her stage presence
Working against her: Even Simon Cowell recognized this week that viewers get a little sick of hearing how great Fantasia is, and jokingly told her that she was terrible to try to get her some sympathy votes.
Kim Reed is a freelance writer in Upstate New York.