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Which ‘Idol’ singers can make it in music?

The fickle world of American Idol propels some to success, while others are worse than forgotten. Take Kelly Clarkson and Justin Guarini, winner and runner-up from “AI’s” first season: Kelly's first LP, “Thankful,” debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard charts and earned a Grammy nomination. The title track from her follow-up, “Breakaway,” (out Nov. 30), is featured in Disney's "The Princ
/ Source: msnbc.com contributor

The fickle world of American Idol propels some to success, while others are worse than forgotten.

Take Kelly Clarkson and Justin Guarini, winner and runner-up from “AI’s” first season: Kelly's first LP, “Thankful,” debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard charts and earned a Grammy nomination. The title track from her follow-up, “Breakaway,” (out Nov. 30), is featured in Disney's "The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement." She's toured, has a DVD, and rebounded from her only career pitfall, a certain film flop she starred in with Guarini.

Now let's check the achievements of the once shaggy, now hair-impaired Justin. His self-titled LP sold less than 150,000 copies and his record company, RCA, dropped him barely two months after its release. Justin twice signed with new management and twice it failed to work out. He was slated to appear in December’s Broadway premiere of "Good Vibrations," but alas, it was recently announced that he and the production "parted company."

Simon Cowell once said Justin possessed the “X Factor” — that certain unidentifiable appeal. Unfortunately for Justin, no one else seems able to identify that appeal either. Season Three winner Fantasia Barrino and the Season Two’s winner and runner-up Ruben Studdard and Clay Aiken all have November record releases.

But LPs today don’t guarantee a career tomorrow. It’s time to separate the Justins from the Kellys. Before the fourth season of “American Idol” starts in January, introducing a whole new set of fresh-face hopefuls, let’s review the X Factors of Idols past.

The big winners

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Mike Blake

X00030

Reuters

IMAGE: Barrino

0041114_fantasia_vmedLOS ANGELESUnited States6323598720000000001LOA89DPfalsefalseFantasia Barrino

Placed: 1st, season three

X Factor: The sassy single mom with powerful pipes was no cookie-cutter diva. She refused the pop-tart style changes imposed on “AI” ladies and made everyone love her — even sans hair extensions.

Memorable for: Against the likes of La Toya London, Jennifer Hudson, and Diana DeGarmo, Fantasia fought hard for first place in a season of strong female vocalists. She has a voice for soul and R&B, and pulled off a respectable big band version of Queen's "This Thing Called Love."

Career-to-date: Her first release, "I Believe," is the top-selling single for 2004. She made Billboard history as the first artist to debut at No. 1 on the Hot 100 chart. Her debut LP, "Free Yourself," is out Nov. 23.

Ree calls it: She's clearly a Kelly. Fantasia may even outshine our Miss Clarkson one day. Now if she could just quit that pesky habit of inserting "yeah-yeah-yeah" at the end of every song, I think I could love her.

Helen calls it: I agree with what you said. And Fantasia was really great actually playing Aretha on that one show, “American Dreams.” At least in the commercial I saw. Another thing that’s great about her is ... um ... uh. Oh, who am I kidding? I don’t really watch this show all that much. I just like talking about TV.

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Lucy Nicholson

X01565

Reuters

IMAGE: Studdard

0041115_ruben_bcolLOS ANGELESCAUnited States of America6318907200000000001LOA06DPfalsefalseRuben Studdard

Placed: 1st, season two

X Factor: He has a smooth Luther Vandross voice, which earned him the nickname “The Velvet Teddy Bear.”

Memorable for: More than anything else he’s memorable for those 205 area code shout-out jerseys that he wore almost every night of “AI’s” second season. Who shouts out to their area code? Not his hometown, not his friends, but props to his greater neighborhood area with the same dialing prefix. Word.

Career-to-date: His debut, “Soulful,” produced by Clive Davis, went platinum. His newest LP, “I Need an Angel,” hits stores Nov. 23.

Ree calls it: He's Kellyish, but just barely. Ruben has the potential for a decent career, but not necessarily the personal longevity. It's reported that he gained 100 pounds since his “AI” victory, no doubt helped by a contract rider requiring a bucket of KFC and a fifth of tequila in his dressing room (according to documents published on The Smoking Gun web site)

Helen calls it: Paging Dr. Phil…

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Joe Cavaretta

AP

AP

IMAGE: Aiken

A DEC10 2003 PHOTO041115_aiken_bcolLAS VEGASNVUSA6320661120000000001NYET102PfalsefalseClay Aiken

Placed: 2nd, season two

X Factor: Scrawny, sugar-bowl ears, lazy eye — who knew those were the makings of a major heartthrob?

Memorable for: The Glory Note — his ability to hold a single note, in key, longer than nature intended — set him apart early in competition. Despite sounding less like a pop singer than the lead in your local Little Theater’s production of “Oklahoma,” he developed a huge cult following.

Career-to-date: Clay’s debut LP, "Measure of a Man," sold over 600,000 copies and went straight to the top of the Billboard 200 — in its first week! His new LP, "Merry Christmas with Love," is due this month, along with his book, "Learning to Sing." The "Clay Aiken Holiday Special" DVD is out Dec. 14. But take a deep breath girls — the Clay Aiken 2005 Wall Calendar is in stores now!

Ree calls it: Do I even need to say it? He's a Kelly. He's more of a Kelly than Kelly. Clay need not worry about his career; his legions of rabidly loyal fans will see him through. No presidential race was ever as hotly contested as vote tallies from the Clay/Ruben face off. Clay fans, known as Claymates, were in an uproar over suspected voting fraud that resulted in Ruben's big win.

Helen calls it: How come there’s no “From Ruben to Clay” movie? I’m thinkin’ a “48 Hours” formula. Or maybe a frame-by-frame remake of “Tommy Boy.”

The also-rans

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Luis M. Alvarez

AP

AP

IMAGE: Gray

BILLBOARD R AND B HIP HOP AWARDSMIAMI BEACHFLUSA6322734720000000001FLAD113PfalsefalseTamyra Gray

Placed: 4th, season one

X Factor: With beauty and grace, Tamyra came to the competition an already polished vocalist.

Memorable for: Despite her fourth place finish, Tamyra was arguably season one’s best singer, and performed a show-stopping version of "A House is Not a Home." But the most memorable moment for Tamyra was her early ouster, which still leaves many “AI” fans scratching their heads.

Career-to-date: A recurring role on “Boston Public” marked not only early success for Tamyra but also the first real job acquired by any “AI” alum. While sales of her May 2004 LP, "The Dreamer," have been soft, she’s nabbed a role on the WB's "What I Like About You" and recently made her Broadway debut in "Bombay Dreams."

Ree calls it: Overall I say she's a Kelly — but I don't think a recording career’s going to do it for Tamyra. Her record sales haven't even reached Justin level, and that's just sad. But she's diversified, and that’s good — a record contract, numerous TV appearances, and Broadway.

Helen calls it: Oh! She played that girl on “Boston Public” whose boyfriend beat her, and Seven of Nine was all trying to get her to break up with him. Or was it the choir teacher? I didn't really watch that show, either.

Kimberley Locke

Placed: 3, season two

X Factor: Big hair, big butt, and big voice: in a nutshell, that's what Kimberley brought into the competition. Sadly, it's also much of what she's changed.

Memorable for: Kimberley flew under the radar for the first few episodes of season two, but when Disco Week rolled around, she poured herself into a skintight silver dress and busted out a version of "It's Raining Men" to put The Weathergirls to shame.

Career-to-date: Her LP, "One Love," debuted at No. 16 on the Billboard 200. The single "8th World Wonder" topped both Billboard's Adult Contemporary and Dance charts.

Ree calls it: She a Kellustin, or a Justelly — I don't know. Kimberley is a decent singer, but since when does that make a booming career? She gave her image an overhaul, complete with weight loss, flat-ironing that gorgeous hair, and picking up the unfortunate habit of calling herself K-Lo. I heard she's shacked up with Clay (in the totally platonic way), so maybe some of his magic pixie dust will rub off.

Helen calls it: Is she on TrimSpa?

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Kevork Djansezian

AP

AP

IMAGE: DeGarmo

A MAY 25 2004 FILE PHOTO041115_degarmo_bcolLOS ANGELESCAUSA6322104000000000001NYET111PfalsefalseDiana DeGarmo

Placed: 2nd Place, season three

X Factor: Diana was the bubblegum-sweet, decked-in-pink, 16-year-old diva.

Memorable for: Overall, she just wasn't too memorable at all. Diana managed to stay in the competition longer than some contestants who should have surpassed her — La Toya London for one.

Career-to-date: Diana’s first album, “Blue Skies,” is out Dec. 7. Released a single in June.

Ree calls it: I'm going to go with Justin here. She really can sing, but there's nothing to set her apart from every other blonde teen queen.

Helen calls it: Howard Stern was really mad that chick made it so far. But he didn't want Bush getting reelected either, so there ya go.

Franchelle "Frenchie" Davis

Placed: Season two, removed during semifinals

X Factor: Belting songs like an Aretha Franklin for the new millennium, Frenchie was pegged by many to take it all the way.

Memorable for: Possibly the most talented of season two, she was doomed by the on-again off-again morality standards of Fox TV. Frenchie was pulled as a finalist for posing topless on an adult web site prior to “Idol.”

Career-to-date: Despite her “Idol” ouster, Frenchie joined the cast of Broadway's "Rent" After a brief stint in the West Coast cast of “Dreamgirls,” Frenchie returned to her original “Rent” gig where she continues to receive rave reviews.

Ree calls it: I'm going to call her a Kelly. She hasn't had the successes some Idols enjoy, like a record contract. But she'll make up for it with career longevity based on actual talent.

Helen calls it: Don't you worry, Honey. Vanessa Williams got her Miss America crown yanked for naughty pictures — and she's the most successful former Miss America out there. You go, Frenchie!

Nikki McKibbin

Placed: 3rd Place, season one

X Factor: Nikki was the first of the requisite red-haired rocker girls (later played by Vanessa Olivarez in season two and Amy Adams in season three.)

Memorable for: She made it to the top three, inspiring a collective “the hell?!”from viewers who couldn't believe a talent like Tamyra was leaving while Nikki moved on to the finals.

Career-to-date: Nikki is the proud owner of a karaoke business, Angelfire Productions, hosting shows at Fat Ted's and Coyote Ugly in Dallas. According to her Web site, Nikki "plans to eventually release a full-length rock album in the near future." Wonder if anyone plans to record it. Or buy it.

Ree calls it: Sub-Justin. I just don't see a career here. But here's the rub — I actually like her. Sure she was off-key most of the time; even she seemed to know she wasn't that great. The shocked expression on her face when Tamyra left said as much. And yet she stumbled through "Black Velvet" one more time. I admire the tenacity.

Helen calls it: Karaoke? Wait. What’s the difference between Karaoke and this program?

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Paul Hawthorne

Getty Images North America

Getty Images

IMAGE: Hung

041115_hung_bcolNew YorkNYUnited States63217065600000000013257850PfalsefalseWilliam Hung

Placed: Didn't make it through auditions, season three

X Factor: He's just one big X Factor. What makes William Hung work is everything that should keep him from working at all. He can't sing. He can't dance. What he does have is charm by the boatload.

Memorable for: He's of course best known for slaughtering Ricky Martin's "She Bangs" and refusing to stop his audition even when the judges all but begged him. He smiled throughout and could not be crushed by criticism. William’s best gimmick: Literal interpretation of songs through "dance" and bizarre hand gestures.

Career-to-date: William’s "Inspiration" LP, released earlier this year, shot to number 34 on the Billboard 200. His DVD, "Hangin' with Hung," includes a full-length video for "She Bangs,” as well as interviews and behind-the-scenes footage. His new EP, "Hung for the Holidays,” features nine Christmas classics Hungified for your pleasure.

Ree calls it: While he's clearly no Kelly, he’s solidified in the annals of pop culture, a feat Justin has yet to achieve — not to mention he’s outsold Justin in the CD department.

Helen calls it: For this he studies engineering at UC Berkeley?

The big recap

Ree: In the end it’s a fine line that separates a Justin from a Kelly, and talent is not always the deciding factor. What makes “American Idol” different than other reality show competitions is that sometimes there is a Kelly — a real career can be achieved. Can Kimberley Locke outsing Kelly Clarkson? Maybe she can. Is Ruben Studdard really a better crooner than Justin Guarini? Not necessarily. It doesn’t matter. All that really counts is whether they can translate the exposure they get from the show into something that lasts longer.

Helen: Dude! Answer my question. What’s the difference between “American Idol” and karaoke?

Ree: Production values, Helen. Production values.

Ree Hines lives in Tampa, Florida. Helen A.S. Popkin lives in New York.