The Golden Globes are reminiscent of the political party conventions held every four years.
Both Democrats and Republicans, trying to grab as many votes as possible, do their best to be inclusive. The message is always the same: We’re a big tent … everybody’s welcome.
Such is the same for the movie portion of the Globes, which this year acknowledged big studio movies, indies, comedies, dramas, foreign films, Americans, Brits, Australians, A-list talent, unrecognized thespians and seemingly everything else in between.
And what it especially liked was two particular individuals: Leonardo DiCaprio and Clint Eastwood. The former impressing members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association in two Warner Bros. films: “The Departed” and “Blood Diamond.” Eastwood, another Warner Bros. icon, is competing against himself by directing both “Flags of Our Fathers” and its companion piece, the Japanese perspective “Letters From Iwo Jima.”
Does that mean that DiCaprio and Eastwood are locks to win their respective categories come Oscar time? Absolutely not. The Globes might like to advertise itself as the precursor to the Oscars but in reality, the 5,500 or so members of the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences are a completely disparate group than the approximately 95 members of the HFPA.
They don’t often think in unison or, most importantly, vote the same way. Look no farther than last year. “Crash,” which went on to win the Oscar for best picture, wasn’t even nominated for a Globe. Same for “Munich” and “Capote.” Only “Brokeback Mountain” and “Good Night, and Good Luck” made the final five for both groups.
Putting the ‘foreign’ in HFPAThere are several reasons why the lists are often different. First, the voting deadline for Globes members is much earlier. They must hand in their ballots in early December while Oscar voters have until Jan. 13, meaning Academy members have more time to view and absorb the huge influx of films that are vying for awards consideration that aren’t screened until late November or early December.
Also, members of the HFPA are, for the most part, journalists born in different countries around the world but live in Los Angeles and cover the entertainment business for their home newspapers and magazines. Their view of the films and television shows they write about can be skewed by their nationalities and what’s familiar (or not) to them.
For example, on the TV side, the Globes have historically voted for new programs that have gotten critical support. Normally, that would’ve meant NBC’s “Friday Night Lights” had a nomination coming. But football is barely played outside the States and despite the critics’ high praise, the show didn’t make a dent because the HFPA can’t relate to Americans’ huge appetite for the sport.
Bringing that analogy back to the movie side, the same reasoning could be made for the exclusion of two very specific U.S.-themed films: “World Trade Center” and “United 93,” both of which dealt with the trauma of Sept. 11.
There’s no way to make the connection that those movies didn’t get any love from the HFPA because its members couldn’t relate to the subject matter — and to try would be pure folly. It should be noted, however, that “United 93” has made several top 10 lists of the year, including the best picture from the New York Film Critics, and Paul Greengrass was named best director of the year by the Los Angeles Film Critics.
Comedies get a seat at the tableWhat the Globes often do well is give studios, which are paying millions of marketing dollars in its awards campaigns, reason for optimism. The biggest difference between the Globes and Oscars is the Globes offer 10 nominations for best picture, actor and actress by dividing those categories into drama and comedy/musical. (The supporting categories are a mélange of all the films, meaning you get Eddie Murphy in the musical “Dreamgirls” facing off against Jack Nicholson in the deadly serious “The Departed.”)
History dictates that high-minded dramas will dominate the best-picture category come Oscar time and comedies will take a backseat. So while the popular “Little Miss Sunshine” might buck that trend and make the final cut and “Dreamgirls” will certainly be there as well — the chances for “Borat,” “The Devil Wears Prada” and “Thank You for Smoking” are awfully slim. All three films have done exceptionally well to make it to Globes best-picture status, but all three also know their time following the Globes hoopla will probably fade, giving up the Oscar stage to others.
So, while it’s not impossible, it’s highly doubtful Sacha Baron Cohen will hear his name called come Oscar nominations morning. However, and this could be the highlight of the entire awards season, he certainly might win for best comedy actor at the Globes — and be sure to set your Tivo for that moment. In a broadcast where alcohol has traditionally loosened up many an acceptance speech, Cohen’s could be one for the ages.
Although the best-picture winner of the Globes and Oscars have matched all but once from 1993 to 2004, last year’s omission of “Crash” — and eventual win by “Brokeback Mountain” — was actually the second time in a row the HFPA hasn’t aligned with the Oscars.
Eastwood vs. Scorsese ... againIn 2005, the Globes awarded its top film to Martin Scorsese’s “The Aviator” over Eastwood’s “Million Dollar Baby.” Eastwood would have the last laugh, of course, when “Baby” and its star Hilary Swank — along with Morgan Freeman would triumph on Oscar night.
Eastwood and Scorsese, who has incredibly never won an Oscar despite directing some of cinema’s greatest films (“Raging Bull,” “GoodFellas”) will likely be facing off again this year. Eastwood with his Iwo Jima-themed movies and Scorsese with “The Departed.” It all makes for great drama … though Bill Condon (“Dreamgirls”), Stephen Frears (“The Queen”) and the aforementioned Greengrass might have something to say about the outcome.
And Oscar rules won’t allow DiCaprio to compete against himself, meaning that although they weren’t Globes nominated, Ryan Gosling (“Half Nelson”), Ken Watanabe (“Letters From Iwo Jima”), Matt Damon (“The Good Shepherd”) and Nicolas Cage (“World Trade Center”) aren’t out of the race yet.
So enjoy the cavalcade of nominees who will be sure to attend the Globes for the Jan. 15 show. They’ll be laughing, drinking and having a good time. For many, it could be their last big party for awhile, more than a handful watching the Oscars a month later from home.
Stuart Levine is a senior editor at Variety. He can be reached at .