If there are any certainties in life — Britney Spears will do something stupid, the Oakland Raiders will find a way to lose and Meryl Streep will be nominated for an Oscar, no matter the movie — then look for the Golden Globes to choose stars and shows that are new and viewer-friendly.
In a continuing effort to be the anti-Emmys, the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. like to be cutting-edge when it comes to TV nominations.
With that in mind, here’s a look at who the voters should deem worthy on Dec. 14, nominations morning.
ACTOR, DRAMA
Hugh Laurie, “House”
Kyle Chandler, “Friday Night Lights”
Kiefer Sutherland, “24”
Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”
James Woods, “Shark”
Laurie is the defending champ, and remains both a critical force and a heartthrob, so he definitely stays in the mix. Sutherland’s only getting better in “24” (as the Emmys finally figured out) and even though the HFPA has never been a fan of procedurals, it would be hard for them to ignore Woods’ contributions to “Shark.” Plus, he’s also a movie star, which also goes a big way in his favor. Michael C. Hall earned all kinds of raves as the complex mortician on “Six Feet Under” and is just as complicated as a serial killer on Showtime’s “Dexter.” The real find of this group, however, is Kyle Chandler as Dillon Panthers High School football coach Eric Taylor on NBC’s vastly underrated “Friday Night Lights.” Those who don’t watch “Lights” may remember him as the cute bomb guy who got blown to bits in last season’s post-Super Bowl “Grey’s Anatomy.” Chandler’s been doing stellar TV work under the radar for 15 years and now — even though he’s forced to wear sunglasses, shorts and keep a whistle in his mouth while his team’s on the practice field — he’s finally gotten a role that has audiences taking notice.
ACTRESS, DRAMA
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”
Edie Falco, “The Sopranos”
Mary McDonnell, “Battlestar Galactica”
Sarah Paulson, “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip”
Jeanne Tripplehorn, “Big Love”
What a difference a year makes. Of the five nominees announced last December, only one of them would be eligible now, and that’s Sedgwick. She continues to lead the TNT drama as Southern belle Brenda Johnson, a cop who’s not as nice and sweet as she may seem. Falco was absolutely brilliant when she was caring for coma-laden Tony, while also trying to keep the Mob fellas in line. The Jersey boys were constantly hovering in and around the hospital — wishing their fallen leader well while also wondering who’d be boss if he didn’t make it through. Sci-fi fans aren’t the only ones singing the praises of McDonnell and “Galactica,” and in a weak year for actresses, it might be just the right time she gets her due. While “Studio 60” continues to go through fits and starts — some episodes absolutely cringe-inducing while others showing promise — Paulson (who shone on “Deadwood” two seasons ago as the mischievous Ms. Isgringhausen) does justice to Aaron Sorkin’s rat-a-tat dialogue. Finally, Tripplehorn was the tour de force on HBO’s “Big Love,” the mother hen forced to not only watch over her kids and give husband Bill Paxton comfort, but keep another eye on scheming co-wife Chloe Sevigny and naïve co-wife Ginnifer Goodwin.
ACTOR, COMEDY
Steve Carell, “The Office”
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Charlie Sheen, “Two and a Half Men”
Kevin Connelly, “Entourage”
Jason Lee, “My Name Is Earl”
Carell is the most buzzworthy of this bunch right now, coming off both a Globes and Emmy win. Connelly is still as funny as ever but sensing that HFPA voters aren’t all the likely to repeat themselves if given enough options, he's been moved from supporting to lead for his role in HBO’s Hollywood-skewering “Entourage.” He’s not exactly the lead of the show, but trying to upstage Jeremy Piven on a supporting level is practically impossible, so why not give top billing a try? Sheen and Jon Cryer do their end to keep “Two and a Half Men” a Nielsen fave while Lee has perfected his redneck ways to a tee. The secret weapon here, however, is Baldwin, whose verbal clashes with members of the fictional “Girlie Show” make us wish he would’ve starred in a sitcom a dozen years ago. The man’s got a sense of humor and comedic touch that just can’t be taught. Now only if more than three people watched every week.
ACTRESS, COMEDY
America Ferrera, “Ugly Betty”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “The New Adventures of Old Christine”
Mary-Louise Parker, “Weeds”
Felicity Huffman, “Desperate Housewives”
Marcia Cross, “Desperate Housewives”
Nothing against the “Housewives” ladies, but it’s only the dearth of female comedians that allows them to make the short list. Parker is the defending champ and the fact that “Weeds” is on Showtime and can take some creative liberties — meaning they can curse up a storm —makes the show better than it would be if it had broadcast restrictions. The affable Louis-Dreyfus has proven that it wasn’t just the writers on “Seinfeld” that made Elaine Benes funny, but it’s the actress herself who’s so likeable. But even before the nominations are announced, go ahead and mark your ballots for Ferrera, with “Betty” succeeding because of her buoyant smile and carefree attitude as the overworked and underappreciated magazine editor’s assistant who just can’t say no.
DRAMA SERIES
“Heroes”
“Lost”
“Deadwood”
“The Wire”
“Friday Night Lights”
Not that we’re HBO-centric, but it’s impossible to pick two better shows on the air this year than David Milch’s “Deadwood” and David Simon’s “The Wire.” That being said, both have been mostly ignored when award season rolls around, so expecting the Globes or Emmys to choose either for some well-earned hardware would be foolish indeed. “Lost” won for best drama last season and the quality is as good as ever. The split season is practical from a production standpoint but not from a fan’s perspective, which may hurt the show’s awards momentum. “Friday Night Lights” is a gem, but probably has a hard time registering with voters from foreign countries where football is non-existent. Then, of course, there’s “Heroes,” a real audience pleaser and bonafide ratings sensation in a season where hits have been awfully hard to find.
COMEDY SERIES
“30 Rock”
“The New Adventures of Old Christine”
”Ugly Betty”
“The Office”
“Entourage”
“Betty” knows how to turn heads — and TV remotes. “Ugly Betty” is the rare hourlong sitcom that was a hit from Day One and deserves the high praise it’s receiving. Watercooler buzz alone makes it a Globes nom and most likely winner. Yet it’s far from the funniest new show of the season. That honor belongs to NBC’s “30 Rock,” a Nielsen-challenged but often laugh-out-loud look at a “SNL”-type variety series. It may be one of the lowest-rated Thursday night programs in the history of the network, but it’s still a thousand times better than “Veronica’s Closet,” “Suddenly Susan” or any of those other lame comedies NBC put up during its Thursday night glory days. Thanks to a stellar cast, “Christine” is a weekly gem but Globes voters rarely acknowledge traditional studio-audience sitcoms. “Entourage” provides quality on a consistent basis, with skewers and jabs at Hollywood that are funny only because they’re so true.
Because of broadcast time constraints, the Globes have only two supporting categories that integrate series, miniseries and TV movies, all in one. It’s utterly ridiculous — an actor can be nominated for 10 minutes of work in an HBO dramatic movie and compete against someone who’s in 22 episodes of a comedy series. If they’re trying to acknowledge the best weekly work only, however, among those men who should have their name called include Masi Oka (“Heroes”), Gerald McRaney (“Deadwood”), Forest Whitaker (“The Shield”), Michael K. Williams (“The Wire”), Michael Emerson (“Lost”), William Fichtner (“Prison Break”) and Joseph Gannascoli (“The Sopranos”).
For the women, worthy nominations would include Elizabeth Mitchell (“Lost”), Hayden Panettiere (“Heroes”), Jamie Pressley (“My Name Is Earl”), Jean Smart (“24), Cobie Smulders (“How I Met Your Mother”) and Minka Kelly (“Friday Night Lights”).
Stuart Levine is a senior editor at Variety. You can reach him at stuart.levine@variety.com