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Tonys set to be a ‘Boys’ night out

‘Jersey Boys’ and ‘History Boys’ will shine, but ‘Sweeney Todd’ could sweep this Sunday's awards, predicts MSNBC's Lee Abrahamian.
/ Source: msnbc.com

This Sunday night, I’m predicting it will be all about the boys. The Jersey Boys and the History Boys.

It's time again for the Tony awards (CBS, 8 p.m. ET), celebrating excellence in theater. This year’s one big change is that there is no one host as in previous years, but a host of presenters including Julia Roberts, Oprah Winfrey, Martin Short and Julie Andrews. Rather than Hollywood filling the nominations, it's filling the presenter's podium.

Who will win?  Unlike other years, almost every race is up for grabs.

I recently spoke to a number of Tony voters who told me, off-the-record, where their votes were going and why. Here are my predictions for this year’s winners:

Best Play

Nominees:

  • The History Boys”
  • “The Lieutenant of Inishmore”
  • “Rabbit Hole”
  • “Shining City”

Inside track: “History Boys.” This Olivier-winning smash hit from London is on a roll and has won every award in sight and it won't stop here.

Best Musical

Nominees:

  • “The Color Purple”
  • “The Drowsy Chaperone”
  • “Jersey Boys”
  • “The Wedding Singer”

Inside track: It's neck and neck between the wildly popular jukebox musical “Jersey Boys,” based on the story of Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons, and the sleeper hit “The Drowsy Chaperone,” an original, completely charming tribute to musical theater.  But since many Tony voters are out-of-town producers and “Jersey Boys” is certain to be a megahit on the road,  the odds are that the “Boys” go home the winners and make a lot of people a lot of money.

Best Revival of a Play

Nominees:

  • “Awake and Sing!”
  • “The Constant Wife”
  • “Edward Albee's Seascape”
  • “Faith Healer”

Inside track: With eight nominations, “Awake and Sing” is the most nominated play of the season and since Lincoln Center Theater's track record for producing terrific revivals is impeccable, “Awake and Sing” should win.

Best Revival of a Musical

Nominees:

  • “The Pajama Game”
  • “Sweeney Todd”
  • “The Threepenny Opera”

Inside track: I guess this depends on whether you want to leave the theatre humming and smiling or heading for the nearest bar. Yes, “The Pajama Game” is more fun and entertaining,  but the very dark “Sweeney Todd” reprise is the most brilliantly conceived, brilliantly staged  production of the season, hands down.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

Nominees:

  • Ralph Fiennes, “Faith Healer”
  • Richard Griffiths, “The History Boys”
  • Zeljko Ivanke, “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial”
  • David Wilmot, “The Lieutenant of Inishmore”

Inside track: Richard Griffiths turned in one of the most critically acclaimed performances of the season, and should easily win here. He's also been acclaimed for taking to task the theatre-goers who forget to turn off their cell phones.  For that alone, he should get a lot of votes.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

Nominees:

  • Kate Burton, “The Constant Wife”
  • Judy Kaye, “Souvenir”
  • Lisa Kron, “Well”
  • Cynthia Nixon, “Rabbit Hole”
  • Lynn Redgrave, “The Constant Wife”

Inside track: Because this race is wide open, with no clear favorite in sight, I'm predicting Broadway favorite Judy Kaye for her star turn in the incredibly demanding role of eccentric socialite Florence Foster Jenkins.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

Nominees:

  • Michael Cerveris, “Sweeney Todd”
  • Harry Connick Jr.,“The Pajama Game”
  • Stephen Lynch, “The Wedding Singer”
  • Bob Martin, “The Drowsy Chaperone”
  • John Lloyd Young, “Jersey Boys”

Inside track: Neck and neck between Michael Cerveris and John Lloyd Young. Cerveris was outstanding as Sweeney Todd and has made the role his own. But Young came out of nowhere, has already grabbed a lot of awards and is one of the main reasons people are flocking to “Jersey Boys.” Because I'm a Broadway purist, I'm going for Cerveris.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

Nominees:

  • Sutton Foster, “The Drowsy Chaperone”
  • LaChanze, “The Color Purple”
  • Patti LuPone, “Sweeney Todd”
  • Kelli O'Hara, “The Pajama Game”
  • Chita Rivera, “My Life”

Inside track: Probably the hottest race of the night and it's between Lupone and LaChanze. In her long-awaited return to a Broadway musical, LuPone is absolutely brilliant in the demanding role of Mrs. Lovett. But LaChanze is beloved by the Broadway community, has sentiment going for her and voters may want to reward “The Color Purple.”  Frankly, I think LuPone is a lock and deservedly so.

Lee Abrahamian, an executive producer for MSNBC TV and a former Tony voter, has covered New York theater extensively.