It's an all-male final three for "American Idol,” but gender is just about the only thing that Adam Lambert, Danny Gokey and Kris Allen have in common.
Lambert is the theater veteran from the West Coast who struts and frets on stage every week in the hopes that it signifies something to the judges and the audience. Midwestern Gokey suffered the personal tragedy of his wife's untimely death, but it's his strong voice and overall consistency that have kept him as one of the favorites all season long. Meanwhile, Allen has become the pride of Conway, Ark. by sticking to his strengths and thus surging from an anonymous member of the 'Idol' pack to one of the final three.
Any one of the three finalists could walk away with the crown, and any of them could flame out and be gone on Wednesday.
Adam LambertStrengths: There's no other contestant who is more compelling every week. Love him or hate him, every facet of his performance is worth watching, from the way he dresses and colors his hair to the way he carries himself on stage to the musical arrangement he chooses.
Every season brings allegations that some contestants are really professionals in amateur clothing, but this is one situation where Adam's experience in theater is a huge advantage. Danny often looks stiff and unsure of how to move his body onstage, while Kris looks like someone who expects the gong to come out at any moment. Adam is most in tune with the music and the audience every week, and he always seems convinced that everyone else is singing for second.
Plus, he looks like he could star in the next “Twilight” movie. That has to count for something.
Weaknesses: Adam is also the easiest of the contestants to dislike. Some don't like his theatrics and some don't like his voice, but he's the one finalist who could drive anti-fans to vote for a rival just to prevent him from winning.
He also walks a high wire almost every week, taking on risky arrangements and song choices. So far, he's managed to make his songs his own, but that could still blow up in his face at any time. What will Randy Jackson think if he does something crazy with a Mariah Carey tune?
Upside: Steven Tyler
Downside: Constantine Maroulis (complete with a Tony nomination on Broadway)
Odds of winning: 40 percent.
Danny Gokey
Strengths: Everyone knows what’s going to happen every time Danny takes the stage. He’ll sing very well, he’ll hit his notes unless he’s trying to match Steven Tyler’s octaves on “Dream On,” and he’ll come across as a likable personality who is easy to cheer for.
Rock and roll night was his first truly bad performance of the year, but still he was able to laugh off his own family’s muting the television for the glory notes. He projects confidence when he sings and humility at other times, an ideal combination to earn fan support.
And as Kara would say, he definitely has the chops to win this.
Weaknesses: It's been a while since he put up a truly outstanding performance. He's the rare 'Idol' singer who peaked early in the competition and yet hasn't really been criticized for not raising his game. Others, like the ousted Lil Rounds, would have liked the same break.
It's hard to say he's not the favorite, since he's never been announced as one of the lowest three vote-getters yet this season. But when it comes to a head-to-head showdown in the finals, how is he going to look against the power of Adam onstage, or the earnest and more obviously commercial Kris?
Upside: A modern Joe Cocker
Downside: A modern Bo Bice, whose success on “Idol” hasn't translated into record sales.
Odds of winning: 35 percent.
Kris AllenStrengths: When Kris sticks to his strengths and performs stripped-down songs while accompanying himself on his guitar, he's the most commercially viable of the finalists. It's very easy to see the kind of album Kris would likely make and picture the audience who would buy it. It’s no surprise that, according to reports, he's one of the most-downloaded "Idol" finalists on iTunes.
Kris made it to the finals despite not being given much airtime in the audition rounds, and has won fewer platitudes from the judges than Adam and Danny. Voters like him better than the judges and producers do, but if Simon and company ever leap on his bandwagon, he could find an additional surge of support.
Weaknesses: Sometimes the judges make an on-the-money suggestion that would truly help a contestant if he would only take it. In Kris’s case, they’re right to say that he needs to display more swagger.
While he has both talent and commercial appear, there’s nothing extraordinary about his stage persona. There are thousands of singers with acoustic guitars plying their trade in bars across the country, singing in obscurity because they lack opportunity and star power. Kris certainly has the former, but it remains to be seen if he has the latter, and that makes him slightly less likely to win than the other two.
Upside: Jason Mraz
Downside: Any random guy with a guitar playing in your local bar next Thursday night
Odds of winning: 25 percent.
Craig Berman is a writer in Washington.