Guest Post: Predicting the unpredictable: How far will prices fall?

Published: September 6, 2007, 11:44 am

Tags: real estate musings, housing market, housing prices, la times, peter viles, subprime mortgages

In our continuing series of guest posts Peter Viles, writer of the L.A. Land blog for the LA Times is gracious enough to share his thoughts on housing prices. We interviewed Peter a while back, you can listen to him here. How far will home prices fall? Seven percent? 15 percent?? 30 percent??? 50 percent??? On my housing blog at the LATimes, I put up a post over the Labor Day weekend linking to a post at a favorite LA blog of mine, Manhattan Beach Confidential, that collected various predictions of how far prices will fall from their bubble peaks. Here is my post on LA Land. The comments I received were, as always, enlightening: Pat wrote, “Pricing is completely dependent upon the neighborhood. Auctions have shown 30% price drops already in parts of Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties. Other areas, like the Westside have shown drops of less than 10%.” Amir wrote, “Anybody who read Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan knows that most

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