Democrats Likely To Win Presidency If Bush Remains Unpopular

Published: July 18, 2007, 2:26 pm

Tags: poll, barack obama, bill richardson, 2008 elections, presidency, john edwards, hillary clinton, politics, democrats

Today's Los Angeles Times has an op-ed by political reporter Ronald Brownstein ("Bush the Albatross") which repeats an argument Mad Professah has been echoing since last November: The Democrats have the upper hand in winning back the White House in 2008 due to the unpopularity of the current Republican president in particular and of Republicans in general. Happily, in his well-written (excellent topic sentences!) column Mr. Brownstein uses actual polling data and historical analysis of presidential results to bolster his claim:Bush won't be on the ballot in 2008, of course, but throughout American history, outgoing presidents have cast a long shadow over the campaign to succeed them. And when a departing president has been as unpopular as Bush is now, his party has usually lost the White House in the next election.[...]In the elections to replace departing presidents, weakness seems more contagious than strength. Outgoing presidents with a high job approval rating haven't always

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