The Political Impact of Same-sex Marriage Rulings

Published: May 15, 2008, 4:57 pm

Tags: countermobilization, the federalism dodge, gay and lesbian rights

David Weigel says that "Politically, I suppose this is bad news for the Democrats, but not nearly as much as in 2004. For one, it's not coming out of a candidate's home state." Tom Maguire, meanwhile, asserts that the California Supreme Court may have done the GOP a "favor." As I've been through before, though, while I know I'm supposed to see 2004 results in which Bush underperformed structural models as proof of Karl Rove's strategic super-genius the allegedly large effects of gay and lesbian marriage on the 2004 election have been greatly overstated. And needless to say, predictions about how the New Jersey court's ruling were supposed to have a major impact on the 2006 elections will vanish down the memory hole.I don't really find this surprising. People overstate the extent to which people vote on social issues, and people who get outraged by decisions permitting gays and lesbians in other states to get married are overwhelmingly likely to be Republican voters anyway. I

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