The states in play for Election Day

>> we just mentioned, peter laid out those numbers for you in florida. the latest nbc news " wall street journal " marist poll also shows the state of ohio where president obama has a six-point lead over governor romney . as we take a closer look at those numbers, we're joined by chris matthews , the host of msnbc's "hardball" and john harwood , cnbc's chief washington correspondent. good morning to both of you. nice to have both of you here this morning. chris, as we look at these numbers, as peter just laid out for us, the romney campaign is really trying to drive upturnout at this point. if those numbers hold with our polling in ohio , is there a path to victory for mitt romney without ohio ?

>> well, who knows. i think ohio is probably going to go for the president. i'm looking at pennsylvania. i think they haven't spent the time there. romney is going into this weekend -- they think they've got an outside chance at pennsylvania. i don't follow all this theory that it all comes down to ohio . i do think there are a lot more states in play. watching these things and make predictions about presidential election for so long and i always go with one simple principle. look at the numbers on thursday and project the direction they're going in. the direction right now, although it's mild, is definitely going towards obama . so he will be better off on monday and tuesday than he is right now. i really think that's the strongest thing to look at. i think romney 's got a problem with his dishonest ad -- objectively dishonest about jeep. his opposition to the existence of fema. his opposition to the bailout of the auto industry . these are objective facts he has against him. and pretty good job numbers on friday. put it all together with governor christie collaboration this week with the president and you see an effective president looking like a good president this week. and i think that's the last big picture the voters are going to see.

>> chris brought up the auto bailout, which we've heard so much about during this campaign. if the president does win a second term, could governor romney 's op-ed from four years ago end up being a deciding factor as you look back on this election?

>> the significant factor, i don't know if it's deciding, but you look inside the polls in ohio , you can see that barack obama is in a lot stronger shape with blue collar voters in that state than he is with blue collar voters elsewhere in the country. why is that? part of that is because of the auto bailout, because they hammered it so hard, because romney was on the other side, and also because the obama team made a decision very early on to go after mitt romney on bain capital , on his business experience, capitalize on his wealth and investments and try to make the case that he's not one of us, and it's been very effective. i don't know if that message comes from obama 's loins or from his brain, but it seems to have been working so far.

>> good to speak with both of you this morning.

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