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Image: Mitt Romney
NBC News
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks to a small crowd at the Iowa State Fair Thursday, August 11.
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updated 8/11/2011 6:38:57 PM ET 2011-08-11T22:38:57
Analysis

The air-conditioned tent sponsored by Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will feature country music star Randy Travis and a petting zoo. Tim Pawlenty is offering Dairy Queen Blizzards and Famous Dave’s BBQ. Courtesy of Rick Santorum: A performance by the Big Bopper Jr. and jars of homemade peach preserves.

Behind the festivities orchestrated by the Republican presidential candidates for the nearby Ames Straw Poll lie do-or-die stakes. Most of the GOP contenders have been furiously circling the state in the lead-up to perhaps the most important week of the campaign so far.

The excitement begins with a debate at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, nationally televised on Fox News. On Saturday, the unusually volatile 2012 field will finally coalesce — barring a forthcoming announcement by Sarah Palin (CNN reported on Wednesday that Palin's "One Nation" bus tour will be hitting the Iowa State Fair this week before the straw poll) — when Texas Gov. Rick Perry is prepping to launch his presidential campaign in South Carolina and New Hampshire. That evening: Results of the Republican presidential straw poll will be announced at the Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University.

Story: Romney in shouting match with crowd at Iowa fair

Exceed expectations, and receive reams of flattering national publicity. Disappoint, and watch campaign donations dry up overnight.

“A single bad performance in an actual caucus or a primary can be less devastating to a campaign than underperforming at the Iowa Straw Poll,’’ said Gentry Collins, an Iowan and former political director at the Republican National Committee.

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Just ask Lamar Alexander, Sam Brownback, Elizabeth Dole, Dan Quayle, and Tommy Thompson, all of whom bowed out of the race after weak showings in this quirky, quadrennial mock election.

Candidates with the most to win or lose this year include Bachmann, Pawlenty, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and Santorum. Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman aren’t mobilizing supporters to go to the poll, but their names will appear on the ballot, and both will participate in the televised debate here on Thursday.

What started in 1979 as a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party has evolved into a mini-ground war, testing each campaign’s grassroots operation in the state that will eventually host the first nominating contest. If you can persuade thousands of Iowans to trade their Saturday for a road trip to Ames in the dead of summer, the thinking goes, perhaps you are qualified to be the leader of the free world.

Though the straw poll inevitably shapes the road to the White House — by determining who gets to stay the course — history shows that it’s an unreliable harbinger of future success. Only two of the past five straw poll winners have gone on to become the party nominee.

Video: GOP hopefuls prepare for Iowa straw poll (on this page)

“It’s been my experience, not just in my campaign but in previous campaigns, that the Iowa Straw Poll has a shelf life of about 24 hours,’’ said the poll-shunning 2008 GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, in a recent interview at the Capitol. “It has minimal impact on the eventual outcome, as to who the nominee of the party is. It’s a straw poll — and, at least in my experience, it doesn’t necessarily reflect the views of all Republican voters.’’

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Despite polls showing that Perry will immediately become a top contender, his name will not be listed on the straw poll ballot. With the absence of a commanding front-runner, some Iowa Republicans are worried about a low turnout on Saturday. About 14,300 people participated in 2007, compared with about 24,000 in 1999.

“What bothers me is that this is Iowa’s showcase, the greatest party and the largest gathering of Republicans outside a national convention,’’ said Chuck Laudner, a former executive director of the state party. “For Iowans to sit on their hands and not blow the doors off this would be very disappointing.’’

Here’s a rundown of the stakes for each of the major players in the race:

Michele Bachmann: Her perch beside Romney at the top of the polls demands an equally strong finish on Saturday. Bachmann's challenge is to prove she can parlay national buzz into a solid ground game. A big turnout will likely benefit her. “My women in Iowa really like her, but this contest is all about who shows up,’’ said Penny Nance, CEO of Concerned Women for America, a Christian conservative group. Bachmann has been emphasizing her roots in Waterloo, Iowa, support from religious leaders, and a never-surrender position on the debt ceiling.

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Herman Cain: Poking fun at his relative obscurity, the Atlanta corporate executive has a new online ad that asks, “Who is Herman Cain?’’ He raised his profile a bit when he demonstrated his rhetorical skills in the debate in June, but his campaign has since endured staff turnover and questions about his bias against Muslims. His recent “Common Solutions’’ bus tour visited 20 Iowa cities.

Newt Gingrich: The floundering campaign of the former House speaker didn’t put up the money to reserve a spot at the Ames Straw Poll, though his name will be on the ballot. He is campaigning in Iowa on Thursday and Friday, but he doesn’t have the resources to bus supporters to the poll, like some of his rivals do. A poor showing would be par for the course.

Jon Huntsman: The former Utah governor and ambassador to China has not campaigned at all in Iowa and is expected to poll accordingly. But Thursday’s debate will be his first. A dramatic moment on national television would be an opportunity for Hunstman to convince GOP activists and donors that he deserves to be in the top tier of candidates.

Ron Paul: The lawmaker and tea party hero from Texas has passionate followers who frequently give him an edge in straw polls. Yet even a top spot is unlikely to endear him to enough mainstream Republicans to pave a path to the nomination. “From everything I'm seeing, Ron Paul has a better than average shot to win this thing. Then, where will the field be?’’ asked Tim Albrecht, a spokesman for Gov. Terry Branstad. Good question.

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Tim Pawlenty: The former governor of Minnesota has the most chips riding on this weekend. He’s been campaigning hard in the state for months, built one of the most respected organizations, and invested in television advertising. But he has shown little traction in the polls and has been seeking to lower expectations. “This is make-or-break for him,’’ said longtime GOP activist Loras Schulte. “I think he has to finish a strong third, at least, or he will have an awfully hard time making the case that he is truly a viable candidate.’’ A low turnout would suggest that Pawlenty’s grassroots machine has hit its targets but that Bachmann isn’t the big draw. He faltered in the last debate, and a strong performance on Thursday could help energize supporters.

Mitt Romney: After his $10 million gamble on Iowa earned him only second place in the 2008 caucus, the nominal 2012 front-runner declared months ago that he would not compete in the straw poll. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is trying to spend as little time and money in the state as he can without signaling disrespect to the proud host of the nation’s first caucus. Reflecting that balance, he hosted a roundtable discussion about the economy and attended a county fundraiser on Wednesday, and he will make an appearance at the Iowa State Fair and participate in the debate on Thursday.

Rick Santorum: The former Pennsylvania senator is trying to make the most of the fact that he has spent more time in Iowa than any other candidate. His new campaign video intones: “2,500 Miles … in 19 days … with seven kids … in two minivans … and 1,362 ‘Are we there yets?’ It’s the Santorum Iowa family tour.’’ Unlike Pawlenty, who has amassed a large staff in Iowa, Santorum has operated on a shoestring budget. It’s unclear if he would be able to sustain his bare-bones campaign if he doesn’t poll well on Saturday.

The article, "Critters, Cones, and Candidates: Festive Iowa Weekend Could Make, Break 2012 Hopefuls," first appeared in the National Journal.

Copyright 2012 by National Journal Group Inc.

Video: GOP hopefuls prepare for Iowa straw poll

  1. Closed captioning of: GOP hopefuls prepare for Iowa straw poll

    >> the 2012 presidential race is heating one the first major test for gop hopefuls. the iowa republican straw poll takes place this weekend. two names not on the ballot getting a lot of the attention. chuck todd is the political director and chief white house correspondent. he's in des moines . hi, chuck.

    >> good morning, matt. we're in for a whirlwind 48 hours . there's a republican debate tonight. the straw poll on saturday. but the two noncandidates are testing a large shadow of the field of actual candidates.

    >> i believe in this country. because i believe in americans.

    >> reporter: leaving little doubt he's about to jump into the republican presidential race , rick perry tested out possible stump speech lines wednesday.

    >> this west texas optimist sees our brightest hour is just around the corner.

    >> reporter: in an exclusive interview with "time" magazine provided to nbc news, perry says he has the fire in the belly required for a grueling campaign.

    >> getting to the all in point and the idea that this is what i'm supposed to be doing.

    >> reporter: another noncandidate is making waves with most of the political world in iowa , sarah palin is trying to keep her name in the mix, releasing this video saying her bus tour is back, coming to tomorrow's iowa state fair .

    >> they love their country in good times and bad, and they're always proud of america.

    >> meanwhile, the official republican candidate s crisscrossed iowa in saturday's straw poll . mitt romney in pella sounded nonchalant about perry 's possible candidacy.

    >> a fine man, a fine governor.

    >> he expressed his own specious over perry 's 26 consecutive years in the private office.

    >> i know how the economy works.

    >> the next three days will be crucial for the two minnesota repibbs camped out in iowa . tim pawlenty and michelle bachmann . she's playing up the iowa roots and outsider status.

    >> from waterloo, we're honest people. i lived a real life . i didn't go to washington to be a politician. i am not a politician.

    >> former governor tim pawlenty who struggled to catch fire and backed off a promised attack on romney in a previous debate says he's prepared to go on the off tonight.

    >> i know how to put the hammer down when that needs to happen. i've done that as well.

    >> fair or not, saturday's straw poll could be make or break.

    >> for some candidates, rick pawlenty, if they don't do well, it could have a hard devastating impact on the campaign going forward.

    >> on a scheduling note, just this morning, we learned that sarah palin will be in iowa today, bus tour events today. we'll try to step up a little bit on the debate tonight. the white house reconfirmed that the president has no plans to cancel the vacation that begins next week after a trip to iowa , matt.

    >> chuck todd in iowa this

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