Will 2011 be the year reality TV dies?

Reality TV is dead. Toast. Six feet under. Kaput. Had a fork stuck in it — one of those big serving forks, too, not a little oyster fork.

Well, not so fast. Reality TV is still breathing, even though “American Idol” and “Dancing With the Stars” spent some time in the emergency room last season. When the juggernauts feel pain, so do the rest of us. And the genre.

The reality about the future of reality TV? We have judges of our own who have an opinion on the subject.

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“Reality TV — a staple of prime-time schedules for a solid decade at least — is here to stay, in that it is simply now another genre of TV, like sitcoms or dramas,” noted James Poniewozik, television critic for Time Magazine. “But like those other genres, it will have boom times and lean times, and we may be in a relatively lean time.”

“Reality TV isn’t going anywhere,” said Matt Roush, TV critic for TV Guide, “especially where these high-profile competition shows are concerned.”

Said reality TV producer J. Rupert Thompson (“Wipeout”): “From my perspective, I’ve never been busier.”

Negative headlines
The temptation to blow "Taps" for reality TV is understandable, given that both “American Idol” and “Dancing With the Stars” created some negative headlines in their last go-rounds.

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In the case of “Idol,” there is skepticism and unease among devotees with the judging process, given that Simon Cowell is long gone, Ellen DeGeneres and Kara DioGuardi didn’t work out, and the show’s producers enlisted rocker Steven Tyler and siren Jennifer Lopez in order to jazz up the panel. Although the Aerosmith frontman and the “Gigli” star could still provide the right chemistry with returning judge Randy Jackson, right now the feeling seems to be one of car-wreck curiosity.

With “Dancing,” the Bristol Palin voting hubbub — she kept advancing when many observers were dubious about her ability, and ballot-stuffing was suspected — left a pall.

So with the two giants of the genre dealing with flak, it is tempting to conclude that reality television is under fire.

“I don’t think either issue damages reality TV overall,” said Poniewozik, “because in a way, each incident is about something that is inherent to reality TV, and even part of its appeal. Reality TV, especially shows involving voting, have involved a meta-layer of analysis of the voting, speculation about how the nature of the production might affect the judgment, doubting the wisdom and integrity of one’s fellow viewers, and arguing over what ‘deserving’ to win a reality show means.”

In transition
In the case of “Idol,” Roush said 2011 will tell a lot. “ ‘Idol’ clearly is in a transitional mode,” he said, “and this is the most critical year yet for the blockbuster franchise. The next few weeks and months and beyond will tell us if ‘Idol’ is still a juggernaut or just an aging hit.”

But Roush added that regardless of how “Idol” fares, “reality TV is part of every network’s prime-time formula now. Without a couple of hit reality franchises, a network doesn’t seem as relevant anymore.”

As for “Dancing,” Roush said the Palin situation was a godsend rather than a detriment.

“For all the furor over Bristol Palin’s casting and longevity on the show last season, the bottom line was that the show was the water-cooler sensation of the fall season — a season when no scripted series on any network exactly caught fire,” he explained. “The challenge — and possibly downfall — for ‘Dancing,’ as they approach a new season, there may be a ‘how do we top this?’ mentality that could turn the show even further into a circus.”

It's all about the money
Thompson, who is working on three reality game-style competition shows in 2011, believes the genre is thriving, and it will only keep doing so.

“Continuing shows like ‘Biggest Loser’ continue to get great numbers,” he pointed out. “ ‘Big Brother.’ Shows that have been around forever continue on because they’ve proven themselves to be great shows despite mishaps or hiccups that come along.”

The reason Thompson is so confident is simple. “The bottom line, it comes back to money,” he said. “Reality shows are cheap to do, they’re highly promotable, people will always come to check them out. The good ones stick, the bad ones won’t.

“Reality show budgets are only about $700,000 an hour on the low end to a top of $1.5 million, $1.6 million an hour. It’s low risk for networks.”

In comparison, a one-hour scripted drama costs about $2 million to $3 million per episode, according to Variety reporter Stuart Levine.

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David Parks, who worked as special producer on “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” earlier this year and in the past, has produced and directed such shows as “Nashville Star” for USA/NBC and “Murder in Small Town X” for Fox, is equally bullish on the future of reality TV.

“Reality TV is certainly alive and well, and as long as the plethora of cable TV networks remains viable, there will be a need and demand for programming,” he said. “I think what’s changed over the years is that networks are getting more specific about what type of shows they are looking for as they attempt to build their brand. So the approach is a lot less ‘try anything and see what sticks,’ and more ‘we’re looking for a specific targeted show.’

“Overall, reality TV is now an important and established part of every network’s programming plan,” Parks said. “These shows represent a significant part of their audience, and as long as viewers continue to tune in, reality TV will remain strong.”

Michael Ventre is a frequent contributor to TODAYshow.com. He lives in Los Angeles.