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• Putting Predictions to the Test

  Published: November 2, 2007, 3:53 am

  Tags: Tetlock, Fact Based Analysis, Psychology, Expert Judgment, Disarmament As Humanitarian Action, Decision Making, Cognitive Biases, Prediction, Accountability

  The only regularity Tetlock found was the negative effect of reputation on prediction: those who had a big reputation were worse predictors than those who had none."Ouch. But Tetlock's study didn't end there. His focus wasn't so much to show the real level of competence of experts, but to investigate how they spun their stories. Tetlock

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